As with any parameter of the environment, the observer can only have incomplete, uncertain knowledge of
λ derived from stimulus data; that is, the aspect ratio and slant-from-disparity measurements obtained from stimuli on each trial. Since both of our models assume that
λ t depends on
λ t−1, the observer's knowledge about
λ t is represented by a posterior probability density function on
λ t, conditioned on the entire history of stimulus data,
p(
λ t∣
α t,
t, {
α t−1,
t−1, ⋯,
α 1,
1}). Since the slant estimator depends on
λ t, knowledge about which depends on the entire stimulus history, the posterior density function on slant, given the available sensory information, has to be rewritten as
The first term inside the integral is the posterior given by
Equation A2, with the likelihoods given by
Equations A8 and
A9, where the likelihood for the compression cue (
Equation A8) is parameterized by
λ t.
Equation A10 simply expresses the fact that the posterior on slant is the average of the posteriors computed for all possible values of
λ t, weighted by the posterior probability density function for
λ t, conditioned on all of the sensory measurements observed up to and including time
t. Note that the estimator does not use a discrete estimate of
λ t at each time step to parameterize the slant-from-compression/disparity estimator (a suboptimal thing to do). Rather, it maintains and updates an internal model of the probability density function on
λ t conditioned on all of the sensory information received to date. The adaptive models determine the evolution of
p(
λ t∣
α t,
t, {
α t−1,
t−1, ⋯,
α 1,
1}) over successive stimulus presentations
t. For notational simplicity, we will use
X t = {
α t,
t,
α t−1,
t−1, ⋯,
α 1,
1} to represent the history of sensory data from stimulus presentation
t back to the first stimulus observed by a subject, so we are interested in deriving recursive update equations that relate
p(
λ t∣
X t) to the stimulus data at time
t, {
α t,
t}, and the previous density function
p(
λ t−1∣
X t−1).