The simple Bayesian model assumed that participants combined their sensory evidence with a learned prior of the stimulus directions in a probabilistic manner. Participants were assumed to make noisy observations (
θobs) of the stimulus motion direction (
θ) with a probability
pl(
θobs|
θ) =
V(
θ,
κl), where
V(
θ,
κl) is a circular normal distribution with width 1/
κl. The posterior probability that the stimulus is moving in a particular direction
θ, using Bayes' rule, is given by multiplying the likelihood function
pl(
θobs|
θ) with the prior probability
pprior(
θ):
It was hypothesized that participants could not access the true prior,
pprior(
θ), so they learned an approximation of this distribution,
pexp(
θ). This approximation was defined as the sum of two circular normal distributions, each with width determined by 1/
κexp and centered on motion directions -
θexp and
θexp, respectively:
Participants were assumed to make perceptual estimates of motion direction
θexp by choosing the mean of the posterior distribution:
where
Z is a normalization constant. Finally, it was hypothesized that there is a certain amount of noise associated with moving the mouse to indicate the direction the stimulus is moving and that the participants make completely random estimates in a fraction of trials
α. The estimation response
θest given the perceptual estimate
θperc is then:
where the magnitude of the motor noise is determined by 1/
κm. We assumed that the perceptual uncertainty at the highest contrast was close to zero (1/
κl ∼ 0). So, by substituting
θexp =
θ and using
Equation 4 we fit participants' estimation distributions at high contrast in order to approximate the width of the motor noise (1/
κm) for each participant for all models.