In the experiment below, observers are presented with pairs of photographs of children and asked to rate the similarity
s of each pair on a scale from 0 (not at all similar) to 10 (very similar). We will use the term “related” to mean that two children have the same biological parents. Half of the pairs of children are related (
R) and half are not (
). The order of presentation is randomized, and therefore the prior probability
P[
R] that the children in each pair are related is 1/2. We record the frequency of use of each of the ratings, separately for related and for unrelated pairs. Their expected values are proportional to the true underlying conditional probabilities,
P[
s|
R], the likelihood that the observer says “
s” when confronted with a related pair of children, and
P[
s|
], the probability that the observer says “
s” when confronted with an unrelated pair of children. If the distributions
P[
s|
R] and
P[
s|
] were identical, then we could conclude that the observer's similarity ratings contain no information about kinship. We can compute the
posterior odds P[
R|
s] /
P[
|
s] that the children are related by Bayes' theorem in odds form (Mood, Graybill, & Boes,
1974),
where
P[
R]/
P[
] is the prior odds that the children are related. For the circumstances of our experiment, the posterior odds that a pair of children rated
s are related is equal to the ratio of likelihoods,
because
P[
R] =
P[
].