In choosing the stimulus aspect ratios to test on each trial, we used a new adaptive procedure, which we term minimized expected entropy staircase method.
For a given trial, the probe ratios and responses from previous trials in the same condition, { x k, r k}, were used to estimate a posterior probability distribution P( μ,σ∣ x 1, r 1, x 2, r 2,… x n, r n), where μ is the PSE and σ is the difference between the PSE and the 75% point. The next probe x n + 1 was chosen to minimize the expected entropy, − p log( p), of the posttrial posterior function, P( μ,σ∣ x 1, r 1, x 2, r 2,… x n + 1, r n + 1). The entropy cost function rewards probes that would be expected to result in a more peaked and concentrated posterior distribution over the space of possible combinations of μ and σ, consistent with the goal of estimating μ and σ with minimal bounds of uncertainty.
There are only two possibilities for the next response, 0 or 1, and for each of these possibilities, one can compute what the new postresponse likelihood distribution would be, as well as its entropy. The expected value of entropy is simply a weighted average of the two possible results, where weights are proportional to their probabilities,
P(
r n + 1 = 0∣
x n + 1) and
P(
r n + 1 = 1∣
x n + 1). If
μ and
s were known, these probabilities would be directly determined by the model psychometric function. Thus, to estimate
P(
r n + 1∣
x n + 1), we marginalized over
μ and
σ, using the posterior distribution computed from previous response history as an estimate of
P(
μ,σ):
In our implementation, we used a logistic function to model the psychometric function P( r n + 1∣ x n + 1, μ, σ), rather than a more standard cumulative Gaussian, to simplify computation during probe selection. Also, the function was scaled to range from 0.025 to 0.975 rather than from 0 to 1, to reduce the effect of lapses of attention and guessing on the probe selection. The space of possible bias and threshold values was discretely sampled to carry out marginalization, with σ sampled linearly from the set {0.05, 0.1, …, 0.8} and μ sampled exponentially from the set {0.26, 0.274, …, 3.87} for low-slant conditions and from the set {0.094, 0.100, …, 1.42} for high-slant conditions.
Our staircase method is a greedy algorithm, in that it minimizes the expected entropy only after the succeeding trial, not for the whole future sequence. We do not yet know how much this greedy method diverges from a full optimization. However, informal testing of the procedure revealed it to be highly efficient and robust.
One aspect of the method's behavior that could be problematic in practice is that, once the estimates of μ and σ have converged, the probe choices tend to oscillate between two values, symmetric around the PSE, and be anticorrelated with the previous response. This occurs because the expected entropy function at this point has two local minima that are very similar, such that a single response switches their relative depths. Consequently, probe values would tend to alternate, which could influence a subject's behavior. In the experiment reported here, there were many interleaved conditions in each block and there were a modest number of trials per staircase; hence, temporal correlations were not a concern. However, in a design with few conditions and many trials per staircase, this would be a more serious problem. A simple solution is to use a random subset of the response history to estimate the posterior function, rather than the whole history, once a sufficient number of trials are recorded. Because the method converges to a rough estimate quickly (within 15–20 trials), excluding a subset of trials has little effect on the final distribution of probe samples. Note that, with this modification, there is no need to run multiple interleaved staircases using our method, as is commonly done when using standard staircases.