These dynamics are interesting, but very hard to interpret. Age as a carrier variable inherently confounds many other variables that are actually causal, making it almost impossible to distinguish between possible explanations that could account for the effect of age. For instance, it is conceivable that increasing yellowing of the lens with advancing age might change how observers perceive images in general, not just the dress stimulus (Salvi, Akhtar, & Currie,
2006). Similarly, age-related changes of the optical system of the eyes might gradually dim the image with advanced age. If image brightness is associated with color percepts of the dress—brighter images being associated with white-and-gold percepts (Vemuri et al.,
2016)—this could account for a reduction in black-and-blue percepts with advanced age all by itself. But there are many changes to eyes as a function of age, for instance, an increase in light scattering, which might affect the perception of the dress stimulus (Watanabe, Fujii, Nakamura, & Korenaga,
2015). However, in addition to age-related changes to the structure and function of the eye itself, one can't rule out generational effects in a cross-sectional sample like this. We really cannot dismiss the possibility that these people were exposed to different priors when they were at the same age. For instance, older people can be expected to have spent more time outdoors in their youth compared to current youth whereas incandescent lights are gradually being replaced with LED lights, which would produce differential prior exposure effects on different age cohorts. Perhaps it is as simple as the priors being weak in the young, accounting for the rise of white-and-gold percepts as participants approach middle age, and increasing insomnia in the elderly, presumably exposing them to plenty of artificial light. This last idea could be powerful. There is no telling how long it takes for priors to become established or over how much time they integrate information. It must not be a lifetime. For instance, it is conceivable that the illumination prior takes only the last year or so of light information into account.
Figure 9 looks suspiciously like a graph of workforce participation rate by age (McBride,
2011). The sharp drop in white-and-gold percepts coincides roughly with the beginning of retirement age in the Western world, where most of the participants in our sample reside. Could it be that workforce participation correlates with looking at bright—and perhaps bluish—screens for a large part of the day, which might shift the spectral composition of the average light seen, and thus the light priors, toward shorter wavelengths?