Mixture modeling suggested that modeled precision rather than guessing was responsible for the difference in memory quality between the two states. As the validity of mixture modeling has recently been questioned (Lawrence,
2010; Schurgin et al.,
2018), we aimed to assess the trajectory of response precision across reports by accounting for differences in subjective confidence ratings. Specifically, we tested the trajectory for response precision across reports when subjects were confident that they did remember the item, i.e., when according to their self-report they did not guess. We evaluated response precision across successive reports separately for each level of confidence rating and set size. When participants gave a rating of “1,” “2,” or “3,” indicating low, medium, or high confidence, respectively, we found that response precision decreased significantly across reports in both set size conditions, except for low confidence in the set size two condition; confidence rating of “1”: main effect of report position for set size two,
F(1, 9) = 5.1,
p = 0.0512,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.36; and for set size four,
F(1.4, 12.4) = 3.0,
p = 0.097,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.25; confidence rating of “2”: main effect of report position for set size two,
F(1, 9) = 49.9,
p = 0.0001,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.85; and set size four,
F(1.6, 14.1) = 14.2,
p < 0.0001,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.61; confidence rating of “3”: main effect of report position for set size two,
F(1, 9) = 22.6,
p = 0.0010,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.72; and for set size four,
F(3, 27) = 20.9,
p < 0.0001,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.70. In contrast, we did not find such a decrease in response precision for the confidence rating of “0,” corresponding to forgetting (see
Figure 4a): main effect of report position for set size four,
F(3, 18) = 0.6,
p = 0.614,
Display Formula\(\eta _p^2\) = 0.09. Note that because participants gave a rating of “0” very rarely in the set size two condition, precluding the computation of the response precision, we could not compute the corresponding ANOVA. Again and most importantly, for the set size four condition, we observed a steep drop of response precision from the first to the second report and a slight decrease thereafter only if participants reported to have low, medium, or high confidence about the memorized orientation but not if they reported to have forgotten the orientation. These observations were supported by the model comparisons that favored the discontinuous over the continuous model for confidence ratings of “1,” “2,” and “3”; confidence rating of “1”: ΔAIC = −10.55, χ
2(2) = 14.55,
p < 0.001, first report benefit = 0.058; confidence rating of “2”: ΔAIC = −9.11, χ
2(2) = 13.11,
p = 0.001, first report benefit = 0.198; confidence rating of “3”: ΔAIC = −3.68, χ
2(2) = 7.68,
p = 0.021, first report benefit = 0.421. In contrast, there was no significant advantage of the discontinuous over the continuous model for the confidence rating of “0”: ΔAIC = −0.05, χ
2(2) = 4.04,
p = 0.132, first report benefit = 0.043.