To probe the accumulation of uncertainty in the internal target position estimate during the occlusion period, we investigated the development of the standard deviation of both radius difference and phase difference over time. The radius difference
SD is linked to uncertainty in the estimated size or position of the circular trajectory, whereas the phase difference
SD reflects uncertainty in time estimates, that is, how far along the trajectory the object has travelled. We used saccade launch points as a measure of the internal estimate, assuming that gaze was kept slightly ahead of the estimated target position and anticipatory saccades were made when the object was likely to reach the current gaze position.
Figure 8 suggests that the positional error (
SD) of phase may accumulate differently compared with that of the radius: Following an initial increase for roughly 0.5 s (i.e., when the saccadic tracking stabilized), the radius difference
SD remained approximately constant, mostly below 2°. In contrast, the phase difference
SD seemed to increase over time: as a rough estimate, after the initial 0.5 seconds, it increased at a rate of 0.025 turns per second, or if interpreted as time estimate, about 0.1 seconds per second.