Having strongly supported Hypothesis 2, we examined what that hypothesis predicts regarding the overall cRT–confidence relationship when all subjects are considered separately (i.e., the standard analysis in the literature;
Moran et al., 2015;
Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010). According to Hypothesis 2, given that different subgroups show different directions of the cRT–confidence relationship, the direction of the relationship in the whole group would be driven by the most numerous subgroup. This is exactly what we found. In one data set (Haddara1), most subjects had a bias toward high confidence responses (
Figure 4A), which should result in a negative overall relationship between cRT and confidence in the whole group. Indeed, we found a strong negative correlation between cRT and confidence at the population level in Haddara1 (slope = −30.95, 95% CI [−39.41, −22.47],
t(417.24) = −7.16,
p = 3.6 × 10
−12, Cohen's
d = −.35, BF10 = 1.5 × 10
9;
Figure 4B). However, the other two data sets (Haddara2 and Bang) featured relatively more balanced subgroup sizes (
Figure 4A), which should result in much weaker overall relationships between cRT and confidence in the whole group. Indeed, we found no significant correlation between cRT and confidence at the population level in Haddara2 (slope = 6.20, 95% CI [−12.95, 25.36],
t(74.52) = .64,
p = 0.52, Cohen's
d = .07, BF10 = .15;
Figure 4B) and a slightly positive correlation in Bang (slope = 11.78, 95% CI [1.88, 21.68],
t(186.92) = 2.34,
p = 0.02, Cohen's
d = .17, BF10 = 1.16). These results suggest that previous results of the population-level negative cRT–confidence relationship were likely due to most subjects having high confidence in those data sets. Indeed, this type of bias is clearly present in the
Moran et al. (2015) data set (see Figure 4 in that article) and in the
Herregods et al. (2023) data set (see Figure 7 in that article). These results demonstrate that the group-level cRT–confidence relationship is not fixed and depends on the overall level of bias toward low- or high-confidence responses in each data set.