We were interested in confirming the absence of a difference between SPNs in several cases. This is problematic with traditional null hypothesis significance testing. The traditional
p value gives the probability of obtaining the observed effect (or larger), given the null. However, we are interested in the probability of the null being true given the observed effect. In other words, null hypothesis significance testing gives
p(D|H0), and we are interested in
p(H0|D). We thus used Bayesian
t tests to obtain the desired
p(H0|D). We computed Bayes factors (
BF01 and
BF10) using free JASP software (
JASP Team, 2022). We used the default, uninformed prior, which assigns the null and alternative models equal prior odds. With this conventional default in place,
BF01 = posterior odds in favor of H0, and
BF10 = posterior odds in favor of H1. We can thus derive
p(H0|D) with the formula
BF01/(1 +
BF01). Bayesian
t tests also require one to set priors on parameters within the models. We used the default Cauchy prior with an
r scale of 0.707.
BFs between 1/3 and 3 are inconclusive.
BF01 > 3 is evidence in favor of H0.
BF10 > 3 is evidence in favor of the H1.
BF01 < 1/3, is evidence in favor of H1.
BF10 < 1/3 is evidence in favor of H0.